Un enfoque unificado para el estudio de patrones relacionales espacio-temporales
Resumen
En este trabajo se presenta una metodología para el análisis espacio-temporal de eventos utilizando redes complejas. Se construye una red de eventos considerando cada evento como un vértice y las relaciones espacio-temporales entre ellas como aristas. Se estudia la estructura de la red mediante la identificación de patrones recurrentes que describen comportamientos emergentes del sistema, conocidos como motifs. Para la detección de motifs, se diseña un algoritmo que permite aproximar la distribución empírica de los conteos de motifs, combinando métodos de simulación de redes espacio temporales, algoritmos de agrupamiento y la fórmula de Stirling por radio espacial y ventana de tiempo definidos. Se observa que una distribución log-normal se ajusta adecuadamente a la distribución del grado de la red de eventos, permitiendo definir la distancia en la que dos sucesos pueden estar relacionados en el espacio dentro de una ventana de tiempo. La metodología se ilustra aplicándola al caso de hurtos a personas reportados al departamento de policía local entre 2018 y 2021 en la ciudad de Pereira, Colombia. Los resultados evidencian que la metodología propuesta es eficaz en la identificación de motifs que capturan patrones espacio-temporales generando información que permite desarrollar estrategias de prevención de la delincuencia.
Palabras clave
Patrón espacio temporal, Criminalidad, Motifs, Red de eventosCitas
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Derechos de autor 2025 Miguel Angel Quintero Martinez, Juan Camilo Sosa -Martínez, Martha Bohorquez, Rafael Ricardo Rentería Ramos
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